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Daisho ‘big-little’ principles to place both a ‘big’ bet in one market then ‘little’ bets in other markets

 

Rather than simply relying on the final score you can bet on other things. The first scorer, number of yellow cards and number of corner kicks are a few of the different types of football bet available.


The 1-1 Trade:

What if the strong favourite playing at home go a goal behind early in the game? What should we do? What happens to the odds when this happens? After the Unsuspend, the current scoreline will settle where the 0-0 was before the goal, and gradually begin decaying in the same manner. Laying this is essentially the same as laying 0-0 at that point. But what about 1-1? What happens to that?

 
Well, the market strongly fancies an equaliser, so 1-1 will begin decreasing nicely in price. This provides an opportunity to trade with less risk than the lay of 0-0. Backing 1-1 – especially if the home side are attacking – causes a decent drop in price, allowing you to lay it off later. If the home side do equalise and you have an open position in the market, then this will lead to even greater profits. The risk here is a second goal from the underdog, but you can either live with this risk or else place a small covering bet on the away team's next score.

 

 
 
Let's Go Scalping!

 

 

The 2-0 Scalp:
A popular strategy. With a home favourite, this is a reasonably safe(ish) way to scalp the Correct Score market. From kick-off, this price will start to come in, so backing first and laying off a few ticks later should yield decent profits whilst also offering a greater possibility of having an open position when/if the home team score. This will then lead to greater profits. The risk is the same as many of these strategies: namely if the away team should score first. If you have an open position during such an event then you'll suffer a full loss. Scalping however is about getting into the market at the right time (i.e. when the away team do not have the ball).

 

 

The Current Score Scalp:
Bank Health Warning! Scalping in this way tracks the current score, with the idea being to take a few ticks here and there. The importance of this type of trading is to have an open position in the match for as short a time as possible (or for as long a time as possible when there is no risk but the odds are still falling). The no risk periods are shots ballooned over the bar, substitutions and injuries.  The difficulty arises when you open a position and find yourself unable to close it properly due to sudden action. As just mentioned, this is high-risk trading and should be confronted with a large measure of caution.

 

 
Book Completion:
Another common strategy. Betfair Correct Score markets are generally 2% above (for backs) or 2% below (for lays) a 100% book. This is the overround, which is much greater on the high street bookermakers. To complete a profitable book you either need to back all the selections under 100% or lay them all over 100%. Some people back those scorelines that will inevitably steam once the match gets underway, and then back the remaining ones that should drift at higher odds than are currently available. In other words, they put an offer in for those driftable scores and wait for their scores to get matched. This should be done without using the "keep bets" option because, if a goal is scored before being matched on all scorelines, then it would not advisable to leave money in place for scorelines that cannot ever occur. If all selections are eventually matched, however, then you will have completed your book at less than 100% for a guaranteed profit.

 

 
The Alternative:
A selection of correct scores can also be satisfactorily used to replace another market entirely that you were originally intending to back or lay, only with (hopefully) greater value. Let’s say that you have assessed a match as a low-scoring home win and you want to back Under 2.5 goals; well this could perhaps be replaced by backing (dutching) 0-0, 1-1, 1-0 and 2-0 instead. By leaving the out the 0-1 and 0-2 scorelines from the equation, you are of course increasing your risk but you are also potentially increasing your profit using a judgement on the shape the game may take.

 

 
Pick-‘N-Mix:
The Correct Score market can also be used in conjunction with other markets. Backing or laying a correct score (or several correct scores) also effectively negates the possibility of some other event occurring in other markets, which could be used to your advantage. Using this pick-‘n-mix approach, it’s possible to work-out a comfortably hedged position. So what do I mean by this?

 
Well, if you back the 1-0 scoreline on the Full-time Correct Score market, then you are also effectively saying that (as an example) a Half-time Correct Score of 0-2 will not occur. The two are mutually exclusive. You may not actually be thinking this precise thing when making your bet, but if your bet wins then the Half-time 0-2 has to fail. As it happens (in this particular instance) the reverse is also true.

 
If you back the Full-time Correct Score of 2-1, then backing Home Win-Both-Halves absolutely cannot succeed (as any Win-Both-Halves bet can only succeed if the winning margin is two goals or greater). Or if you back the Full-time Correct Score of 1-1 then you have, in essence, also bet against (but not actually bet against) a Half-time/Full-time back of Home/Home.

 
Using this logic, we can then think of a Correct Score bet as a kind of “soft backing or laying” of selections in another market - and these may be useful to you. For example, the three most common results in the Half-time/Full-time market are Home/Home, Draw/Home and Away/Away. If you are interested in dutching these three by all means do so, but you could also consider backing the first two along with 0-1, 0-2 and 1-2 instead. Could this lead to greater profits? You'll have to work that out for yourself, but either way you can see how certain scorelines can "replace" or cover selections in other markets.

 
These pick-‘n-mixing of different markets to build-up a position can be extremely powerful if given a bit of thought. Many of your ideas here will ultimately be negated by the powerful accuracy and efficiency of the markets, and by the countless bots out there scouring the markets to close-up profitable positions… But if you’re creative and able to look at these cross-market opportunities using an abstract perspective, then there may yet still be opportunities waiting to be taken advantage of. It’s just up to you to find them.

 
 

Need to dutch back:

 1. Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.35
 2. Correct Score 2-2 @ 17
 3. Correct Score 3-1 @ 28
 4. Correct Score 1-3 @ 28
 5. Correct Score 3-2 @ 38
 6. Correct Score 2-3 @ 40
 

  1. What we are looking to achieve is that NO goal is scored anytime up to 9 minutes.   Why does this method work….we have the starting advantage of only 10.27% of games played have a goal within the first 9 minutes and the fact that we are using a specific criteria to try to improve those odds further. Overview Of The Method

 

  1. 4. Criteria Select games to shortlist from BetVirus coupon where Under 2.5 goals are 69% or higher then you need to check your shortlist of games for the following; Select games to shortlist from BetVirus coupon where Under 2.5 goals are 69% or higher http://betvirus.com/bvrates/ (Optional) Prioritise games that are on Asian Handicap showing 0/0.5 or 0 on http://www.7msport.com/ (Optional) Check most recent matches between both teams did not result in 5 goals or more being scored (Optional) Look at goal times to show not scoring more than 3 goals or conceding more than 3 goals in the first 15 minutes (lower the better) on http://www.soccerstats.com Under 2.5 goals Back odds are 1.62 or higher At least £5,000 liquidity matched in markets Start trade If criteria all met then start your trade before the start of the game.

 

  1. Go to Betfair and select your chosen game from the in-play coupon and go to the under 2.5 goals market and Back the Under 2.5 goals for your chosen stake. Once you placed your stakes put your game on flash scores or watch it on Betfair. Trading Method Rules (1)

 

  1. 5. Trading Method Rules (2) Closing the trade If no goal has been scored by the time you have reached a profit that you are happy with or 9 minutes is reached then cash out of Under 2.5 goals market by using the cash out button on Betfair for a profit. If a goal is scored within the 9 minute period then you would start to use the recovery process. If you wanted to you could start trade with the first part of Recovery If criteria all met then start your trade before the start of the game.  Take up in the correct score market the 2-1, 1-2, 2-2 covering roughly 130% on each score line to cover under 2.5 goals liability, although expect lower profit if taking up before the game starts. Once you have placed your stakes put your game on flash scores or watch it on Betfair.

 

  1. 6. Goal 1 scored within 9 minutes HEDGING TAKEN AT THE START - Take up the 3-0 or 0-3 depending on who scored covering roughly 130% on each score line to cover under 2.5 goals liability….if no further goals by half time you should be able to trade out of both markets equals breakeven. 

  3. Goal 1 scored within 9 minutes NO HEDGING TAKEN AT THE START - Take up the 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, and 3-0 or 0-3 depending on who scored covering roughly 130% on each score line to cover under 2.5 goals liability, so roughly equal amounts of green profit covering your under 2.5 goals stake plus 30% on each of these score lines covering roughly 130% on each score line to cover under 2.5 goals liability….if no further goals by halftime you should be able to trade out of both markets equals breakeven. 

  5. Goal 2 scored within first half – If goal scored is an equaliser meaning 1-1 then take up the 3-1 and 1-3 score lines and you may need to increase slightly existing score lines including possibly a top up of under 2.5 goals so that the correct score liability is covered by the under 2.5 goals potential profit and score lines in the correct score cover the liability in under 2.5 goals

  7. Goal 2 scored within first half – If goal scored means a team is winning 2-0 or 0-2 (example 2-0) then take up the 3-1, 3-2 and Any Other Home win depending on whether home or away team scores and you may need to increase slightly existing score lines including possibly a top up of under 2.5 goals so that the correct score liability is covered by the under 2.5 goals potential profit and the score lines in the correct score also cover the liability in under than 2.5 goals.

  9. Halftime Reached or Goal 3 scored before halftime – If half time is reached or another goal is scored you then you need to take up the remaining score lines 2-3, 3-3, and any other score line to cover under 2.5 goals liability and you will then be staying in the trade until you come back to breakeven or the game ends with you recovering your under 2.5 goals liability or your correct score liability depending on the outcome from the opposite market.   Recovery Hedging

 

 
 
Here is a football arbitrage bet that you might like to try out, you can only use this on a in-play game on the betting exchanges. First you need to select the right football match, look for matches where the AWAY teams odds are low, under 3.0 The Draw and the Home teams odds need to be both OVER 3.0 So the away team is favourite to win., as in the example below.

Home 4.5 Draw 4.0 Away 2.0

Place equal stakes on both the home, and the draw say £100

£100 @ 4.5 returns £350.00
£100 @ 4.0 returns £300.00

So although the away team are evens favourites to win, what we want to happen here is for the home team to score first. As the home team have a 48% chance of winning, and the away team only have a 25% chance of winning, then this could well happen even if the away team go on to win the match. (there is a 27% chance of a draw)

If no goals are scored the price for the draw will fall to 1.01 by the 90th minute, and both teams prices will remain stable or possibly lengthen slightly, and you will win £300.00 minus £100.00 staked on the Home team = £200.00 profit.

If the favourite's score a goal first, their price will get smaller, and the outsider's will get longer and the price for the draw will also get longer. And if they go on to win, you lose the £200.00 stakes.

If the Home team score first, then their odds will shorten, the Away team's odds will lengthen and the odds for the Draw will lengthen.

If (or when) the Away teams odds go over 3.0 (say 3.5 or higher) then back them with another £100 and congratulate yourself, as it will not matter what happens you will win. What you win depends on the outcome of the match but lets say we have backed the Home and the Draw as above, and backed the Away team at 3.5 with £100

If the Home team win your profit less lost stakes of £200 will be £150.00
If the Away team win your profit less lost stakes of £200 will be £50.00
If the Draw happens your profit less lost stakes of £200 will be £100.00

The possible problems are if and how soon the home team score, if it is in the 1st half of the match the favourites price may not move very much at all. (a third of all matches end in 0-0 at half time) If no goals are scored in the 1st half and the home team score in the 2nd half the price will rise the longer the match is played but you should back it as soon as possible at 3.0 or above to stay safe. Note: If you back at 3.0 here and it wins you will only break even, anything over is profit.

The best matches are those where the Home team are 4.0 or above the Draw is at 3.5 or above and the Away team is between 2.0 – 3.0 approximately I wouldn't recommend anything lower than 1.90 as odds on favourites could quite likely win.

Even if the Away team score first you still have 2 chances of winning, as the match might end in a Draw or the Home team winning.

Worth keeping a eye on this bet and paper trade it before risking any cash and even when you do place it I recommend using small stakes to begin with.