The Basics of Dutching
Dutching is considered to be an advanced betting technique, but the
basic concept is actually rather simple. This method is used to
cover multiple selections and guarantee which selection returns the
same amount of wins. When you want to back two or more possible
outcomes at different odds but don't favor one odd or the over, this
technique can be useful.
It was traditionally associated with horse racing betting. Bettors
would use it when they were confident that the winner of race would
come from a number of selections, but they couldn't confidently
predict which of those selections would win. For example, they might
identify three horses as being the best in an eight-horse race. They
would use dutching techniques to back all three of those horses and
make the same return regardless of which one won.
Now, this technique only works in certain situations, as you have to
be able to back all the relevant selections and still have the
potential to make a profit. Thankfully there's an easy way to work
out whether this is possible. Calculate the implied probability of
the odds for each selection, and total them up. If the total is less
than 100%, dutching is a viable option. If the total is 100% or
more, then it's not.
Not familiar with implied probability? You
should be! In fact, in order to become a successful sports
bettors, you NEED to understand how implied probability
works. Please read
our article on probability and value to find out
everything you need to know.
Although this article is about dutching when soccer betting, we'll
use a horse racing example to illustrate the basic concept. This
will just make it a little easier to understand, because dutching
horse races is very straightforward. Let's imagine that there's a
six-horse race, and we've highlighted two horses that we think have
the best chances of winning. Since it's difficult to decide which
one to back, we choose to back them both. One is at odds of 3.70,
and the other is at odds of 2.80.
First things first; we need to calculate the implied probabilities
of these odds. We can use the calculation below to find exactly what
we need.
This will give us an answer between zero and one. Technically,
probability should be expressed this way. A probability of zero
means something cannot possibly happen, and a probability of one
means something will definitely happen. For the purposes of sports
betting, however, we typically express probabilities as percentages.
So after applying the above calculation, we multiply the answer by
100 to get the appropriate percentage.
Here are the calculations we need to do to get the implied
probabilities for the odds of the horses we want to back. Remember,
one is at odds of 3.70 and the other is at odds of 2.80.
(1 / 3.70) x 100 = 27.03%
(1 / 2.80) x 100 = 35.71%
Please note; if you don't feel comfortable doing these calculations
on your own, you can use
our website's very own odds convertor tool that will calculate
the implied probably for you automatically. This might be an easier
option worth considering.
If we add the two probabilities together we get 62.74%. Well below
100%, so dutching is a viable option. The next step is to calculate
the required stakes, so that we get the same return regardless of
which horse wins. This is a little more complicated, so we ask that
you please use the following formula.
A is the implied probability of the relevant selection, B is the
total implied probability of all the relevant selections, and C is
the total amount we wish to stake. We've already established that
the total implied probabilities of the two selections is 62.74%, so
we need to use the following calculations to determine our required
stakes. We'll assume we want to bet a total of $100 on the race.
(27.03% / 62.74%) x $100 =
$43.08
(35.71% / 62.74%) x $100 =
$56.92
Based on this we'd stake $43.08 on the horse at odds of 3.70, and
$56.92 on the horse at odds of 2.80. As long as one of those two
horses wins, we're going to get a return of just under $160. Minus
our original stake, we're left with nearly $60 in profit. Of course,
we lose the whole $100 if neither of our chosen horses wins.
Dutching still
involves risk. It's just about spreading that risk evenly across
multiple selections.
This is a very important point, as dutching is sometimes presented
as a way to make guaranteed profits. It's not. That's arbitrage
betting, which is something else entirely. If you're interested in
that, please feel free to read our article that explains arbitrage
as a sports betting strategy.
So why use dutching techniques at all then? How does it benefit us
when the potential return is equal across multiple selections? While
these are fair questions, the answers aren't going to be immediately
obvious. In very simple terms, dutching is just another way to bet
for value. We use it when backing a single selection isn't the right
option for us, or when we want to improve our chances of winning by
covering more than one possible outcome.
For example, let's say we're looking at an upcoming soccer game and
we feel that one team is better than the other. Although we think
they're better, we don't think they're a LOT better. We're confident
that they won't lose, but we don't necessarily believe they are
going to win either.
We don't have enough confidence in our favored team to just outright
back them, since we clearly believe a draw is a distinct
possibility. This presents an excellent opportunity for us to dutch
two wagers: one on our favored team to win, and one on the draw.
Dutching ensures that our risk is spread evenly across both wagers,
and we'll get the same return regardless of whether it's a win for
our favored team or a draw. We are at risk if our favored team
actually loses, but we believe the chances of that happening are
relatively slim.
When this type of scenario presents itself, dutching becomes a
viable option. Of course, there are many other scenarios where's it
appropriate too. We're now going to explain some specific dutching
techniques that we like to use, and the kind of scenarios we like to
use them in.
Dutching Correct Scores
Dutching correct scores is a very popular soccer dutching strategy.
It's also one of the most straightforward. The idea here is simply
to cover a selection of the most likely final scores, by placing the
necessary correct score wagers.
This strategy is extremely flexible, as you can choose whichever
correct scores you think are the most likely. Just make sure that
the relevant odds meet the necessary criteria so that there's the
potential for profit. It's also wise to check to see if the combined
wagers genuinely offer good value, and that dutching is truly more
beneficial than just backing a single outcome.
We know of some bettors who used a fixed set of scores for every
game. They simply cover five or six of the most common scores, and
hope that they make an overall profit based on the law of averages.
We prefer to avoid this approach, because there are too many
unknowns. We think the better option is to pick which scores to
cover based on an assessment of the relevant game. This is what we
do, and it works out pretty well for us.
There is, however, one scenario where we use the same set of scores
almost every time. In games between two evenly matched teams that
both have good defenses, we typically cover the following correct
scores.
Our theory here is that these types of games are likely to be low
scoring, and that neither team is likely to score or concede more
than a single goal. Chances are high that they'll end up with one of
the above four scores as the final result.
Let's see how we would actually apply this strategy in practice.
Here are the odds associated with the relevant scores for our
hypothetical game.
After we've determined the implied probabilities, the next step is
to make sure they don't add up to more than 100%.
-
8.50 = 11.8%
-
6.70 = 14.9%
The total here is just over 52%, so clearly it's low enough to
proceed. We then need to calculate how much we need to stake on each
score to get even profits. If our total stake was $100, the
following stakes would be required.
-
0-0 @ 8.50 - $22.59
-
1-0 @ 6.70 - $28.66
-
0-1 @ 10.00
- $19.20
-
1-1 @ 6.50 - $29.54
Based on this, we'll stand to win just over $90 if one of these
scores is correct. That's effectively a 90% return on our total
stake of $100, which is the same as placing a single wager at odds
of 1.90. The odds for under 2.5 goals on the same game are just
1.65, so dutching is the better option if we're confident that 2-0
or 0-2 are not likely score lines.
Dutching Correct Scores & Both Teams to Score
If we had to pick a favorite soccer dutching strategy, this would be
it. While it is a little more complex than the one we just went
over, it's still not overly complicated. All we need to do is
identify appropriate games and then follow a defined set of wagering
rules. We are looking for games that meet the following criteria.
-
1One
team is the clear favorite
-
2The
favorite is unlikely to fail to score
-
3The
favorite is unlikely to score four or more goals AND keep a
clean sheet
When we've identified an appropriate game, we then place the
following four wagers.
The theory here is that even if the favorite fails to win, they're
likely to score at least one goal. In that case, the both teams to
score wager will win. That wager will also win with a score line of
2-1 or 3-1. Basically, we're covering the most likely outcomes, and
even some of the unlikely ones.
Here are the relevant odds from a recent game where we used this
strategy.
The total of the relevant probabilities was just under 80%. For a
$100 stake spread across the four wagers, our potential return was
around $126. This is obviously a low return, but only some very
unlikely outcomes would have resulted in us losing. So, in our
opinion, this wager does offer value. The favorite ended up winning
2-0, so we won on one of the correct score wagers.
We could, of course, have simply backed the favorite to win. The
odds for that wager were 1.40, so the return would have been a
little higher, but we would have also been exposed to more risk.
Dutching gives us a little extra insurance on some of the other
possible outcomes.
Dutching Correct Scores & Over 1.5 Goals
This is another dutching strategy that we prefer to use whenever we
get the chance. It offers very low returns, but it's very low risk.
Since we hardly ever lose with this strategy, the low returns aren't
that big of an issue.
We use this strategy when a game meets the following criteria.
-
1Both
teams are evenly matched
-
2We
marginally favor one team over the other
-
3Both
teams tend to score plenty of goals
Then, we place these three wagers.
With these wagers, the only outcome that will hurt us is if our
favored team loses 1-0. All other outcomes are covered. This is why
it's such a low risk strategy. We typically only get around a 5-10%
return on our stake, which is decent considering that we win way
more often than not.
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