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1. Laying the Draw
I find a match that I believe definitely wont be a
0-0 draw. For example Birmingham Vs Blackburn on 15/12/09. I stuck a
lay in at roughly 3.6. As soon as someone scores I think see the
back price for the draw shooting right up and I back for a nice
profit. This strategy works very well assuming its not a 0-0 draw,
so its best to do a bit of research to make sure you dont get stung.
2. Under 2.5 Goals / First Goal
I've only tried this strategy once and it worked
fine. Basically before the match starts you back 0-10 minutes in the
First Goal market. You also back Under 2.5 Goals (with 10x as much
as you backed 0-10). So you could put £25 on 0-10 minutes and £250
on Under 2.5 Goals. Once the match gets into play you need to keep
an eye on the time/score, so it'd be ideal to do this with a
televised match. If someone scores within the first ten minutes, you
will win with your 0-10mins back bet, at this point you should also
lay the Under 2.5 Goals for a small overall profit. If no1 scores by
the time the clock hits 9:59, lay the Under 2.5 (the lay price will
have dropped significantly enough to ensure a nice overall profit).
No matter what you do, do not let the clock go past 10 minutes as if
a goal goes in at 10:01 the strategy is pretty messed up and you'll
just have to take a loss or hope no1 else scores!
Under 2.5 = 2.2 or more AND
First Goal 0-10 = 5.0 or more
The price of the U2.5 then goes down enough to cover
the 0-10
A couple of hours prior to kick-off, goal in 1-10 was
available to back at 5.00 (lay at 5.10), and under 2.5 was available
to back at 2.30 (lay 2.34); I didn't check immediatelly prior to
kick-off, but I suppose there were no major changes.
At eleventh minute, goal in 1-10 minute was clear
loser, while under 2.5 was available to lay at 2.18.
At above stakes, one would lose 10 points staked at
goal 1-10, while trading on under 2.5 would yield green amount of
5.22 (comm. 5% included), which means overall loss of 4.78 units; if
we suppose that one placed an early under 2.5 bet, and got t matched
at 2.34, and then risked a bit placing lay bet at one tick lower,
2.16, it would yield green of 7.91 (comm. 5% included, too), but
it's still loss.
It's 19th minute of the game, and under 2.5 is
available to lay at 1.93, which would certainly result in overall
profit of around 8 units; in order to make profit, under 2.5 must be
layed at no higher than 2.06, which, I suppose, hapenned somewher
around 14th minute of the game; so, this strategy leaves trader
exposed for those 4 minutes, at least in this example.
Though, I noticed another thing: under 1.5 was
available to back at 4.80 (lay at 5.10) in the same period before
the game; in 11th minute, first odds available to back were 4.30 (unfortunatelly,
I forgot to spot lay odds in that moment); if one gets matched his
lay bet at this price, it makes green of 11.04 units after commision,
which means overall profit, strategy works in this case!
Furthermore, given the difference between back and lay odds before
game (4.80 / 5.10), I'm pretty sure that early placed bet could get
matched at 4.90 or even 5.00, which further increses profit!
I recorded odds for under 3.5 and 4.5 (1.49/1.51 and
1.20/1.21 prior to kick off, and 1.40 and 1.17 in 11th minute), but
they can't yield a profit
If you want a bit of cover for an U2.5 bet why not
try backing Any Unquoted on the CS market?
3. Back and Lay before the match starts
This is one that I'm trying out today on the Fulham
Vs Man Utd match. Basically I have checked at oddschecker (http://www.oddschecker.com/)
the odds for Man Utd to win across a bunch of bookmakers. I have
noticed that the 1.7 offered at Betfair is relatively high in
compared to the likes of 1.57 offered at Coral, Betfred, Skybet etc.
So I have backed 1.7 at Betfair. Before the match starts (and as an
influx of bets enter the market) I would expect the price on Man Utd
to win to reflect prices at other bookmakers and come down to around
1.6. I will lay Man Utd before the match starts and ideally make a
nice profit |